Polls and Stuff

Polling can be trickey if you aren't careful, and profitable if you know how to cook the books just right. Produce a poll that shows candidate A with a 5% lead, and you encourage A's constituents and discourage B's. Produce a poll that shows A with a 110% support, and no one will ever listen to you ever again.

A couple of posts down there's a Drudge poll showing Trump with an implausibly wide lead. Not surprising as the poll was taken on line from Drudge readers who tend to be pretty conservative. Here's one from Buzzfeed

This tells you more about Buzzfeed users than Trumps actual standing with the American public.

Still, you can tell a lot about someone both by the people they befriend and the enemies they make. The U.N. for example is made up of representatives of some 170 governments, most of which could be fairly categorized as genocidal tinpot dictatorships. Having this group come out against you to me is a selling point. Finding yourself allied with the UN is questionable at best. The U.N. is one of those things that wasn't thought completely through on its founding. Instead of being a universal elective democracy, it should have been a somewhat exclusive country club with a per-capita GDP minimum requirement for membership. This would automatically exclude most if not all of the tinpots and most of the socialist utopias as well. The members could vote assistance to any non-member trying to elevate itself to member status but not to the incorrigible sink holes. It wouldn't take long for the citizens of the sinkholes to figure out what sort of leadership would make them wealthy enough to get into the club.

AGW Fraud - Latest Evidence

Over at What's Up With That is a summary of a paper suggesting that when known phenomenon are factored in to atmospheric temperature records, the impact of CO2 on temperature change disappears.

One of the main lines of evidence used by the Obama administration to justify its global warming regulations doesn’t exist in the real world, according to a new report by climate researchers.

Since we have pretty good historical data for the last 400,000 years, and a distinct pattern emerges:

So here we are in an inter-glacial period, and getting lower than normal temps out of it. If the planet is warming at all, it looks like that's to be expected. Also the time between warm periods seems to be getting longer with the last cold snap lasting some 125,000 years. What I want to know is what's causing that 80-125K year cycle?

Definition: Renewable Energy

An energy source that usually comes back when the sun rises or the wind begins blowing again.

Of course if you're heavily dependent on the stuff, and a big storm hits, the renewable part may take a bit longer.

Scoring The Debates

Because everyone else is doing it.
Drudge has Trump winning big:

I'm sure the New York Times has a similar poll with similar proportions showing Hill the winner. It's a problem with polling your own followers or employees. Maybe Real Clear Politics will give us an average of some 10 or more polls from reputable sources. Meantime here's a good sized set. I counted so you don't have to. Trump won 16:1 by varying amounts.

My take:
1. Trump didn't fly off the handle and Hill didn't collapse. Kudos to Trumps shrink and Hill's medical team. Her cosmetologist deserves credit as well, she didn't look a day over 40. I had a quiet side bet with myself that neither of them would make it past the 1 hour mark. I lost, so I owe myself a beer.

2. Hill was more polished and better prepared. I suppose that spending 11 hours before a Senate panel repeating the 5th amendment is good practice, although he performance at remembering all those talking points makes you wonder about why she can't seem to remember anything else when seated in front of a Senator.

3. Hill put out some whoppers that Trump let slide. Yes he called her on some, but he missed several as well. The audience seemed to be catching the BS fairly well.

4. Hill pushed the "racist, crazy" meme and Trump brought up the "crooked, untrustworthy" bits which seemed to stick better.

I watched the debate with a bunch of fellow deplorables at the Waters Edge Winery 2101 East Arapahoe Road #101 which isn't near any water at all. The black rasberry Merlot was delicious. To see how this helps the candidates, go here.

Word Of The Day - Occipital Neuralgia

You don't want to experience this. I couldn't lift my coffee cup or tilt my head far enough to drink it. I'm told it will go away on its own but the duration is 1-25 days.

Can't sit up, can't lie down,
Can't look left or right
Can't look around.
Abra Abra Cadabra
This thing will reach out and grab ya.

Update: Or maybe not. Could be just what we used to call "a crick in the neck." Treated with painkillers and heating pad and have cancelled the order for a fancy powered wheel chair.

The Answering Machine

The new message for the Clinton administration. I imagine Trumps would be quite a bit different.

Thank you for calling the White House. Our normal business hours are from 9 AM to 3 PM Eastern Standard time, Tuesday through Thursday. If you are hearing this message during these hours, we are either with another supplicant or in the hospital. Please stay on the line to hear the important options available.

Press 1 to make a donation to the Clinton Foundation. Upon confirmation of the deposit, you will be given the number of my personal Blackberry. Seven figure minimum, six figures is for cabinet secretaries.

If you are calling about a social justice issue, press 2 to be connected to the Secretary of Health and Human Services.

If you are under attack and need help, press 3 to be connected to the State department. If you are with the State Department, press 4 to be connected to the Pentagon. If you are with the Pentagon, press 3.

If you are female and trying to reach Bill, please hang up and call his personal number, 69-BIG CIGAR.

If you are an attorney, press 5 to be connected to the Justice Department. If you are the justice department, you either already have my personal Blackberry number or you don't really need to talk to me.

For all other problems and for expedited service, press 1.

Thank you for calling and have a nice day.

Debate Criteria

At this point if Donald can keep his foot out of his mouth, and Hillary can keep her face off the floor, I'll call the top level a tie and move on to positions on issues, assuming that any actually get addressed.

Bad Polling Data

Here's an aggregate of 2 separate polls which the Donks probably find depressing:

But this is only part of the problem. Right now Hill and the Don are running nearly neck and neck which implies to me that if Bigfoot was on the ballot, as a Libertarian for example, he'd be running away with the election.

Libertarians have hope! Pick the right candidate and win the election. Just not this year.

9mm Fails To Penetrate Ballistic Gelatin

Here's the shocking evidence on video.

Now I've forgotten where I first found the link.

Gun Fun - Cheap Ammo in the 4095

Sometimes the stuff will surprise you. I got some Blazer 155gr .40 S&W from my good friends at Lucky Gunner while I was at Gun Blogger Rendezvous and the stuff delivered better accuracy than my hand loads and before the snark surfaces, way better than the Remington UMC and Winchester commercial stuff I had been trying. I was wondering what all was going on there as I've noticed that the Hi Point 4095 generally seems to like the heavier bullets (180gr) better than the lighter ones (mine were 165gr) and the Blazers were 155gr RNFP jacketed.

Took some down to the club range and ran them through the chroney. Nice tight groups and:

Shot     MV
1          2127
2          2150
3          2153
4          2236
5          2200

Avg     2173
Dev      62.8, 2.8%

My previous high score was about 1500 fps with 165 gr bullets and a full load of Power Pistol. This is  a bit more than 30% faster and more accurate to boot. for comparison:

Bullet	Velo	Wt, gr	M, slugs	Ek, ft-lb	PF
Blazer .40	2173	155	0.0006876664	1623.6	336.8
Typ .223	3000	60	0.0002661934	1197.9	180.0
Typ .40	1200	165	0.0007320319	527.1	198.0

The .40 numbers are from my carbine with 16.5" barrel. I'm impressed. I guess I'll have to get some more.

Medical Advances

Here's a doctor who knows how to drum up business. This note was issued to Churchill.

Found this on Power Line.

Birtherism - Definition

‘Birtherism,’ the now-discredited suspicion that Obama was telling the truth when he claimed for many years to have been born in Kenya.
                                       Ed Driscoll on Insty

So as a "foreign student" at Columbia, did he get a discount on his tuition? Did he defraud Columbia?

Chicago Attacks Gang Problem, Sort Of

Chicago has announced an attack on one of its more violent gangs, the Hobos, bringing some 6 of them up on assorted charges. Seems they have been getting into the drug and "services" trades and killing anyone who objects.

I've never heard of the Hobos but I'm sure this will return control of the above mentioned trades to the rightful owners, the Crips, Bloods, and the Latin Kings, all of whom have a working relationship with their respective aldermen in Chicago.

Cynical of me I suppose but somehow I suspect that a timely donation to the right people could have averted the crackdown.

GBR XI

More news from GBR this time to include results from the steel challenge match we held on Saturday.

	Anthony Welsch	CF-LR			Keith Hunwick	CF-LR
Stage 3
Stage 4		30.20				62.25
Stage 5		20.74				27.48
Stage 6		15.30				21.82
Stage 7		24.97				33.96
Stage 8		32.72				34.83
Total Score		123.93				180.34
	Mike Gallion	RF-O	CF-O		Bill Llewellin	RF-I
Stage 3					Glock	26.80
Stage 4		11.24	18.43			25.28
Stage 5		8.42	18.16			20.20
Stage 6		8.11	13.18			12.32
Stage 7		11.71	16.19			21.93
Stage 8		11.51	25.05			35.88
Total Score		50.99	91.01			115.61
	Myles	CF-LR
Stage 3
Stage 4		33.80
Stage 5		19.45
Stage 6		11.28
Stage 7		24.94
Stage 8		39.95
Total Score		129.42

There was no Stage 3, that was me trying Stage 4 with my IDPA pistol so that score isn't counted toward my total. Thanks to Lizzie for putting this spreadsheet together. Also it's fun to shoot at a range frequented by the wealthy as the ground is littered with once-fired brass.

Derrik Cecil gave us a fine lecture on the use of tourniquets and other first aid one might need on a really bad day at the range. Very edifying as it even included treatment of sucking chest wounds. Just the thing to go with the emergency first aid kit I won.

 I caught everyone Sunday morning at breakfast and joined in the discussion about the future of GBR then decided to skip the simulation shooting at Reno Guns and Range and just hit the road. Made it all the way to Rock Springs where I missed my exit in the dark, came back, fouled up my carefully written directions, couldn't find the Super 8 motel I was looking for and wound up staying at the Motel 6.

NOTE to travelers: If you just need a room for the night, for about $10 more, Super 8 beats the pants off Motel 6 with free Wi-Fi and morning food. Of course if all you need is a bed and a shower, Motel 6 will fill the bill.

Speeds coming back were right up there with the speeds going out, in the upper 70's all the way until I decided to try Google's recommendation of US 287 from Larimie to Ft Collins. 287 was 70 mph with 3 lanes, 2 uphill and 1 down hill so not too bad until:
1. Owl Canyon road which allows you to skip driving through Ft. Collins turned out to be dirt so I passed it up, and
2. 287 into Ft Collins is under some major construction so average speeds for about 20 miles ran to about 15 mph. 25 miles shorter sure, but WAY slower. Should have gone with Owl Canyon.
3. All that plus heavy traffic on I25 and municipal traffic cut my average speed from Rock Springs to home to 67.5 mph.
4. The 6 cyl Camaro gets 30 mpg at 85 mph with the A/C off, and 28.6 mpg with the A/C on.

Hill Campaign Pivot

Here's the latest bumper sticker:

Pining for the fjords, she is.

QOTD - Ms. Inevitability

Found at National Review, you have to wonder if the candidate doesn't have a plan to deal with this problem.

You know, to just be grossly generalistic, you could put half of Trump’s supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables. Right? [Laughter/applause]. The racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic — you name it. And unfortunately there are people like that. And he has lifted them up. He has given voice to their websites that used to only have 11,000 people, now have 11 million. He tweets and retweets offensive, hateful, mean-spirited rhetoric. Now some of those folks, they are irredeemable, but thankfully they are not America.

It would be reasonable to suppose that the merely deplorables would be given re-education at special centers for extended education.

The irredeemables would go directly to the dog food factory.

And you thought Trump had a rough-edged bedside manner.

Trump v Sanders?

Or just an example of life imitating art

in a real-life (?) Weekend At Bernie's.

Several other alternatives here.

GBR XI

Due to several people having unplanned occurrances this year, the event was rather sparsely attended. More range time, food and swag for the rest of us.

The BP paintball gun worked pretty much as advertised although the folks at Washoe county gun range didn't like the sparks coming from the barrel and shut me down after only 2 shots.

The Hi Point was shooting erratically at 200 yards with my spiffy new hand loads but came right in to a 4 minute group using Blazer aluminum cased 155 gr ammo. Go figure.

The Steel challenge ran to 4 stages. There were enough different shooting types that sorting the results out may take a bit. Lizzie is doing the math and will pass the overall results to me and I'll post them, bringing the national breath holding to a merciful end.

I won a shot timer, a blowout first aid kit, a DeSantis holster and several additional items including a 30 round magazine for my AR which I've owned since 2012 if anyone asks.

Tomorrow will be shooting simulation at Reno Guns and Range which I will probably depart early as I have a long commute home.

Incidentally the trip out involved a leg from Denver to Rock Springs WY, Fuel economy was 30 mpg, followed by the leg from Rock Springs to Elko NV with the A/C on which reduced my fuel economy to 28.5 mpg. 775 total miles, 10 hours.

Last leg was Elko to Reno, 290 miles in 4 hours. I'm getting to like this car but it needs better seats if I'm going to make a practice of this.

Gun Blogger Rendezvous

GBR XI starts Thursday in Reno.

I'm hitting the road tomorrow for Reno so posting will be scarce, in other words, about like usual. My planned co-conspiritor flaked out at the last minute so I'm driving this by myself and a 16 hour drive is best done in 2 stages.

Three days of fun at various ranges and evenings involving speakers from various quarters and a raffle with some nice swag, all proceeds to Honored American Veterans. Shooting will range from plinking to steel challenge and cowboy action and the food is great.

Sponsors include Lucky Gunner who is giving pre registered attendees $150 worth of free ammo, Ammo To Go who is putting ammo and knives into the raffle, and Front Sight Acadamy who is putting a training course on the raffle table.

Fun stuff like this Gardner MG sometimes show up as well. It shoots great! Photo taken at the Washoe County Range where the neighbors never complain.

Coincidentally the Reno Balloon festival is this weekend as well.

Posting if any will be done from my little Asus tablet which frankly I'm still learning to use.

Back on Monday.

Gun Sales

To go along with the finding that some 40+% of U.S. households are now willing to admit to a stranger on the phone that they have a gun, note also here the sales anomaly for June and July.

Summer usually represents the doldrums for gun sales if you consider 2M/month to be doldrums. I guess you hold a riot or two and pass some state level laws and everyone runs out and gets one while the getting is good. Since 2006 population increase has been about .83%/year so one would expect gun sales to follow the population curve. Over the same period year on year gun sales have increased by about 10%/year or about 12 times faster than the population.

Photography Tip

The impact of a photo can be enhanced by cropping distracting elements out of it. Take this shot of Muslim refugees adrift in the no doubt shark infested ocean:

Not how distracting the fellow at the upper right is, apparently standing in waist-deep water with no life jacket. Of course he could have been standing on the back of one of the sharks.

Found here at Barenakedislam.

Living With The Wild Life

I was out picking dessert from the raspberry patch when my neighbors son called to my attention this piece of high density housing that had sprung up in the lilac bush:

Click to embiggen. You can see one of the residents on the twig next to the entry hole and several more just inside. The entry hole is about 1-1/2" in diameter. I found one of these a few years ago in the early fall and brought it home as all the wasps had died. Cut it open to see how it was built and found that it consists of several stories of honeycomb layers, small ones on the upper and lower ends and big ones in the middle. No honey, just cells. The wasps seem to die off in the fall and leave the nest empty. Not sure if the nest typically survives over the winter but I don't think so.

UPDATE: These are Bald Faced Hornets, an invasive species but considered beneficial as long as you don't get into territorial disputes with them. They eat other insects, specializing in yellowjackets, but will switch to pollen if that food supply dries up. Most of the nest dies over winter but a few eggs survive to start the hive the next year.

Big boys, about 3/4 to 1 in long.

Asking The Right Question, Obliquely

Rudy Giuliani and Sen. Jeff Sessions appeared in Arizona sporting hats embroidered with "Make Mexico Great Again Also". This is causing some heartburn among the usual suspects who would themselves never think of asking why all those Mexicans are flooding across our border in the first place.

Mexico has a lot going for it including a large population, natural resources, good climate and deep water ports on both coasts, so why does the best job in Mexico seem to be pushing a lawnmower in the U.S.?

For that matter, in the 19th century Argentina had the second largest economy in the world behind only England and giving rise to the expression "As rich as an Argentinian". Where are they now?

There are 3 solutions to the U.S. immigration problem:
1. Build our own version of the Great Wall of China and man it with DHS drones which should work about as well as the original.
2. Establish a solid socialist economy in the U.S. which will at least keep people from coming here looking for jobs.
3. Explain to the clueless dweebs in the State Department that a big part of their job is exporting the idea of free market economies which will have the effect of creating jobs on the other side of the border, reducing the incentive to come here looking for one.

Of course since everyone at Foggy Bottom works for the government and thus supports the ideology of bigger government, asking them to do this will probably sound like asking them to commit suicide.