Saturday, July 30, 2011

Definitions; Recession

A lot of definitions depend on the point of view of the user. Driving through Louisiana on a roadway a few feet above the water, you're enjoying a protected wetland. Drive 3 feet off the pavement however, and you're now stuck in a sucking swamp, complete with alligators and spiders the size of chickens.

Wizbang has taken a look at the economy, and is unimpressed. Looking at GDP growth figures for the last 3-4 years, reveals that the rate of growth from 2007 to 2010 has been a negative .3%. They point out that;
Newsflash: Any contraction lasting two or more consecutive quarters is a recession.
Which is true, but if the economy had started out at a 9% growth rate and slowly dropped back to 8.1% over 3 years, nobody would call that a recession. OTOH, if the economy starts out at less than 2% growth rate and drops to 1.1% over the same period, one can see the alligators through the windshield even though the car may not be completely submerged.

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