Global Warming

IPCC's preliminary report comes out today with a tiny footnote to the effect that when the full report is released next year, it will have been revised into agreement with the preliminary report released today. Inspires confidence, no?

Meantime one of the participants notes that the "95%" confidence statement in the preliminary report was the result of mostly subjective arm waving rather than any actual mathematical calculations.

Money quote from another participant:

From comments: “SPM in a nutshell: Since we started in 1990 we were right about the Arctic, wrong about the Antarctic, wrong about the tropical troposphere, wrong about the surface, wrong about hurricanes, wrong about the Himalayas, wrong about sensitivity, clueless on clouds and useless on regional trends. And on that basis we’re 95% confident we’re right.”

Manbearpig would approve.