Friday, April 6, 2012

March Unemployment 11.8%

Or, to quote the Barbie doll;"Math is hard!".

Here is the latest breakdown of the U.S. population from the BLS:
1.Civilian non institutional population.................242,604
2. Civilian Labor Force.........................................154,316
3. Participation rate..............................................63.6%
4. Employed.........................................................141,412
5. Unemployed......................................................12,904
6. Unemployment rate............................................8.4%
7. Not in Labor force.............................................88,288
8. Persons who want a job.....................................6,041

Not in labor force includes a variety of folks. the definitions vary a bit, but:
Not looking for work during the past 30 days or a homemaker, student, disabled, retired, or an inmate of an institution.
The military is also part of this. Persons who want a job, for this discussion, means persons not in the labor force who would like to be working, which is some percentage of what is called "underemployed".

So let's be honest here. Persons who want a job, but have given up looking are moved from the unemployed to the Not in labor force. If we move them back into the labor force the labor force population goes to 160,357. The total employed remains the same, and the actual unemployment rate becomes 11.8%.

Conversely, if all those pesky unemployed folks would just give up and drop out, the labor force would then equal the number of employed and the unemployment rate would be zero.

The participation rate would then be 58.2%, which we are heading for at a fairly steady rate.
US Labor Force Participation Rate Chart

US Labor Force Participation Rate data by YCharts


If we keep this performance up, by 2017, the unemployment rate will be zero.

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