Thursday, July 29, 2010

GDP and Crystal Balls

Hot Air has a piece on the release of Q2 GDP tomorrow. People who are qualified to guess on the topic are calling for a number between 2 and 3%, close to first quarters number of 2.7%.

Me, I'm calling for an announced number over 3.5%, which will turn out to be bogus, and will be revised downward over the following months in Friday afternoon press releases until it gets down to 2.7%.

My reasoning is that we already know the government lies about stuff like this, and my drive times on the chunk of road I time myself on haven't changed. Traffic is no heavier now than 6 months ago.

Update: I blew it. The government is admitting to 2.4%, which suggests it's probably closer to 1.4%.

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