Thursday, October 7, 2010

Polls 2

Gallup has a poll out that suggests that both unemployment and underemployment are about a point each higher than the official government figures.
The nice thing about polls like this is that it doesn't matter if you're an adult, a registered voter, or a likely voter when the question is asked, you're either working or you aren't. Gallup is also influenced by part-time workers who say they are not looking for full-time work. These folks would likely take a full-time job, but why bother looking if there aren't any?

Gallup says the U-3 is now 10.1%, and the U-6 is up to 18.1%. Government figures are due out tomorrow. Any early bets on the "official" rates?


Brad K. said...

It occurs to me that the simplest way for Obama to avoid that embarrassing little (regular) rise in unemployment claims is to . . um, stop accepting claims. Who would know?

Billll said...

That approach was tried here in Colorado back in the 70's. Colorado enjoyed an unemployment rate so low that large numbers of people from Michigan, where unemployment was rampant, came here looking for work.

It turned out the director of the state employment agency, having been told to keep unemployment down, had made it official policy to reject unemployment claims with the smallest errors on them. If you weren't collecting unemployment, you weren't unemployed.

Shortly after being found out, he joined the ranks of the unemployed.

Brad K. said...

Billll, I am delighted at how optimistic you still are! You have more confidence in the ethics of Colorado (I lived a couple years in Aurora - Colorado is beautiful, and the folks there are wonderful!) than I do about the rule of law under the Obama administration. Notice I didn't mention anything about the people serving under Obama - "If you cannot say something nice . .", etc.

I recall the very recent Coates testimony to Congress, about how the Dept of Just-us has been explicitly instructed from the White House not to pursue any - any - complaint of voter fraud - if the offended voters were white. And that Coates had to violate explicit orders from the Department of Just-Us that Coates was not to respond to the Subpoena Congress issued for his testimony?

Clinton re-defined the way unemployment numbers were cooked and (under) reported. I doubt much chicanery is really "off the table."