Wednesday, August 11, 2010

GDP and Crystal Balls 2

A short time ago I speculated that Q2 GDP would be estimated by the government at 3.7%, then when the hubbub had died down, it would be revised down to 2.7%

I was wrong. The government called it at 2.4%, but I stuck with my prediction that this would be revised down a whole point.

I was right:
June’s trade deficit swelled 18.8% to $49.9 billion, the highest since October 2008. That was much worse than Wall Street predicted — or what the Commerce Department estimated in the recent Q2 GDP report. The new report, along with recent inventory data, suggest Commerce will revise down Q2 economic growth from the already-sluggish 2.4% annual rate to about 1%, according to Action Economics. Action Economics is looking for stronger retail inventory figures later this week that would imply a 1.4% GDP pace.

I'm batting .500 which suggests I should be getting a positively obscene paycheck from some Wall St. money company.

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