Monday, October 19, 2020

Covid Death Rate

Scott Adams asked for this information on his periscope and I thought it was a valid question, so here is the ongoing death rate for the population at large. This is done from 7 day moving average data by dividing the revised number of  deaths by the revised number of cases. That is, the data is presented as a continuously cumulative number, so I took each new update and subtracted the previous total to get the unit change. 

It's hard to read accurately, but you can see that the disease initially was quite deadly as the first victims were probably the weakest, and of course, no one had any idea what to do about it. Early on HCQ became known as a pretty good treatment to at least slow the progress and later other drugs made their appearance. The low spots are .006 (.6%) on 6/28, and .066 (.66%) on 10/12. The initial onslaught killed a lot of people while we tried to manufacture millions of ventilators which turned out to be counter productive, and the second wave, much ballyhooed by the press as a major administration failure, looks to have been dealt with fairly well with the advent of Remdesivir, extracted antibodies, and a couple of other treatments. 

You can copy the data at the link, and paste it into your own spreadsheet and massage it to suit yourself. Is the total number of cases going up? Yes, of course, it gets higher with each new case, but so what? If the fatality rate is dropping faster than the infection rate, we'll soon reach the point where very few people are left who haven't caught it and very few of those will die of it. 

About those deaths. Whose fault are they? The media will tell you Orange Man Bad, but unless they can prove that Trump was operating a bio warfare lab in Wuhan, China, I'm not inclined to assign any blame to the administration. Address your complaints to Emperor Xi.

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