First off let me say that I think the
C19 virus was, in fact, a modified virus developed in the Chinese lab
at Wuhan. That said, I also think it got out by accident, Chinese
quality control being legendary.
Having gotten out, the Chinese
government turned out to be a fan of the “Never let a crisis go to
waste” school of thought. Initial reaction was to try to suppress
news of the outbreak in hopes of not getting caught working on
biological warfare, but when that failed, the well oiled
disinformation machine went into top gear. “Studies” from China
told us that the virus was not human-to-human transmissible, That
masks did no good, that HCQ not only didn't help, it increased your
chances of dying, and that first Remdesivir didn't work, and second
that the Chinese had gone into full production of the stuff and were
ready to sell it at a good price. We were also told that they had
testing kits ready in large quantities suspiciously quickly, and they
sold them all over the world to gullible governments.
What the Chinese learned, quickly
enough, was that the virus was more dangerous to the elderly than to
anyone else. In China that group, “the elderly” has two meanings:
First is the old and retired population, or as Stalin called them,
“the unproductive units”. No great loss there. The other meaning
is “the most senior levels of government”. This hits close to
home as it's the most important demographic in China. Just ask them.
In the meantime, shutdowns impact the
economies of the capitalist world in ways the Chinese military could
only dream about. In parallel with this, is work on vaccines which
are currently being tested on Uigurs in Xinkiang. Given that C19 is
the same type of virus as the common cold, I expect to see a vaccine
against the common cold show up about the same time as the C19
vaccine, which is to say, never. Also remember that Chinese vaccines
can be expected to work about as well as anything else you'd get at
Harbor Freight.
Meantime there's efforts to “flatten
the curve” and to impart “Herd immunity”. What this means in
the first case is that not so many cases requiring hospitalization
develop at once to overwhelm the hospitals. In the long run, the same
number of people die, they just die a few months later. In the second
case, once all those susceptible people shuffle off the mortal coil,
the virus will kill fewer people over all. Note that it will never
actually go away, it will simply sputter along on a reduced number of
victims. Thus C19 will join the ranks of leading causes of geriatric
death along with H1N1 and heart failure, as just another unfortunate
statistic. We are seeing this now in the increasing number of cases
being discovered as the economy opens up, and a steadily falling
death rate as the most vulnerable are removed from the population.
The way it works, any government can expect to see the same infection
and mortality curves, and since mortality is going down and
infections can be expected to begin to decline similarly over time,
all politicians can crow about the success of their plans and get
re-elected.