Place your bets now, and unlike the climate scientists you'll find out over the next 6 or 7 months weather you got it right. What will this winter be like? Long or short? Mild or bitterly cold? Wet or dry? The NWS is predicting the first snowfalls southeast of the great lakes this weekend, so get out those D-20's and give it a guesss.
Me I'm going for long, cold, and wet. This is based on a lack of sunspots and the presence of a big El Nino in the Pacific. That and the entrails patterns of selected road kill. Get the prediction right and you get to add the title of "Nationally acclaimed climate scientist" to your name at least until you fail to predict the next rainstorm.
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But...but, even when they're wrong they're right. A prediction made doesn't have to be right every time. Heck, given the stakes in play and the character of those in the game, it doesn't even need to be right at any time. Some hack will make a grand show that 'statistically' speaking it 'could' be right. It's doublespeak a la Odummy speaking on leadership the other day.
As a long time mariner, pilot, student of the earth sciences, and just naturally inquisitive, I say the weather is the weather. I place my bet on the predicted response of the agenda seekers drooling over the money to be made. They will continue to react as they have. Also, look for increased effort to suppress opposing views.
I haven't attempted prognostication with a Russian howitzer, but I imagine it'd be at least amusing, if not informative.
I'm in agreement with your prediction, for the same reasons. But I was wrong about last winter, so if that's any indicator, this winter will be mild.
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