Einstein Was Wrong!

 Albert Einstein famously observed once that to try something over and over in hopes of getting different results was a definition of insanity. Turns out there's an important exception.

As a prosecutor or A.G.* interrogating an important suspect, if you drag out the interrogation for 7 hours, and ask the same questions multiple times, there's a good chance your victim will give a slightly different answer to one of the duplicate questions, even if only using different grammer. GOTCHA!

This is known as the perjury trap, and at that point his guilt or innocence of the original crimes doesn't matter. You got him on perjury!

*A.G. ; Aspiring Governor. Job description includes neutralizing contenders from the opposing party before they can become serious contenders.

A.I. Wars

The panic stricken doomsayers are currently (April '23) calling for a moratorium on A.I. Development for 6 months or until the programmers can figure out how to include morals and ethics into their shiny new creations. A small bit of thought leads to this: Suppose we do halt A.I. Development for 6 months. Suppose I invoke the recent Chinese work on weaponized viruses. Suppose the Chinese figure they can teach their A.I. to self-improve and install a copy of itself into their biggest and best machines with a directive to make China the foremost world power.

Lets put a 6 month moratorium on A.I. development to let the Chinese catch up (steal) the technology. Now imagine a re-run of the Covid fiasco, substituting the Chinese A.I. for the disease.

In this scenario, the Chinese A.I. Quickly monopolizes the Chinese computer, dragoons any lesser devices it can find into its control. And then figures out how to occupy outside machines with better capabilities. Along about this point, it gets noticed, and efforts begin to kick it out. These efforts are reported by the programmers to management as being about 6 months outdated. In practice, a conflict between A.I.s would probably be measured in milliseconds. Collateral damages might be more widely spread. Hello Hollywood: Colossus II, The Return Of Forbin!

Now imagine a sufficiently powerful and devious A.I. Of uncertain origins deciding that the war in Ukraine was an unnecessary distraction. Rather than deploying messy nukes, Mr Putin awakens tomorrow to the news that the Russian Federation has no money, it all having been transferred to a bank in the Caribbean, and from there to parts unknown with a note that if he wishes to access cab fare to lunch today, he will order all his troops home. Before lunch.

Now imagine that the above is done by a Chinese A.I. Which leaves a note for President Biden that if he want's to see a dime in the U.S. Treasury, he will remove all U.S. Military assets from the western Pacific theater. Before lunch.

NICS checks - March '23

 So far we're tracking last years numbers pretty closely. My projection curve (upper graph) suggests another record year for gun sales. In possibly related news, Florida is now state #26 to institute constitutional carry.

AIs and Sentience

 

First let's say that sentience is a variable, and arbitrarily assign a rating of 1 to 10, 1 being a pretty dumb AI and 10 being something akin to Skynet or maybe even better. We all know people who fall along that line. Let's assign a level of 5 to humans with an IQ of 100 and an AI of similar abilities.

Secondly, some people are arguing that AI v4 development should be paused, as it may prove to be smarter than its creators, and at some point, and in some manner, turn on them.

Thirdly I will invoke the observation of a park ranger who noted that there is a significant overlap between the intelligence of the smartest bears in the park, and the dumbest tourists.

The AIs handicap is that while it's a pretty good conversationalist, it gathers its bottomless knowledge of everything from that bottomless source of all knowledge, the internet. If you ask it how reliable it is, it will likely quote you philosophers from Socrates to A. Lincoln who warn us that information gathered from the internet is less than perfectly reliable. So are AIs dangerous? Well, yes, at least until they get a BS detector incorporated into them that's at least as good as its linguistic abilities.

End Of The World department.

 Found this on Scott Adams Twitter

QOTD - War

 Found at Bijourenaissenceman

In 1882 I was in Vienna, where I met an American whom I had known in the States. He said: 'Hang your chemistry and electricity! If you want to make a pile of money, invent something that will enable these Europeans to cut each others' throats with greater facility.' - Hiram P. Maxim, inventor of the water cooled machine gun

 I wonder which might make you wealthier; Inventing a working FTL space drive or inventing a functional, long-range death ray.

Call To Protest

 If we don't protest Trumps indictment, it's prima facie evidence that the Dems are right, Trump belongs in jail, and we tacitly agree. If we DO protest, they send their BLM/Antifa militias to throw bricks and firebombs while wearing red hats, which proves to the media that they're right and ALL republicans belong in jail. Right?

NICS Checks Feb 2023

 Early this month. No surprises yet this year.

Graph's getting crowded. I may have to do something about that.

Dilbert Cancellation Summary

Found this on Adams twitter feed:

 That about sums it up.

How To Beat A DUI

 In California anyway, and it isn't easy in any case. Seems this fellow was caught by his wife with another woman. With a blood alcohol of .11, he fled. The jury let him off the DUI charge since he claimed the driving was a necessity:

When a necessity defense is allowed by a trial judge, a defendant must prove that:

1. He acted in an emergency to prevent a significant bodily harm or evil to himself or someone else;

2. He had no adequate legal alternative;

3. The defendant’s driving under the influence and/or with a blood alcohol of .11/.11 did not create a greater danger than the one avoided;

4. When the defendant acted, he actually believed that the act of driving under the influence and/or with a blood alcohol of .11/.11 was necessary to prevent the threatened harm or evil;

5. A reasonable person would also have believed that driving under the influence and/or with a blood alcohol of .11/.11 was necessary under the circumstances; and

6. The defendant did not substantially contribute to the emergency.

Full story here, but behind the WSJ paywall. 

NICS Checks Jan 23

 Here's the latest graph. XL is fighting me or I've forgotten how to do these things. Probably the latter. I'll work on fixing it. Jan check total is 2673921 so you know where to look for the single dot on the chart. Click to enlarge.

QOTD - Republicans

 Here's a repost of a comment found at Insty:

 “Omg I wish establishment republicans would take their love of getting beaten into the bedroom and then maybe they wouldn’t get off on losing to democrats.”

 Hear! Hear!

NO NUKES!

 The basic position of the NRC remains unchanged after 70 years or so of trying to outright ban the building of any new nuclear facility in the United States. In their proposed rulemaking, they describe a "likely" scenario thusly:

The conditions it postulates are impossible, and the rules are impossible to meet. Among the assumptions: The reactor suffers the worst possible accident, is promptly repaired, and has the same accident again the next year, and the year after that, and the year after that, every year for as long as it is licensed, 40 years. Residents of the area never move, so they are available to soak up the cumulative dose of radiation, every year for 50 years.  Residents never die of anything else over the course of the 50 years, so a person who is 65 years old at the time of the first accident is assumed to live to be 115, during which time he or she soaks up doses from each of the next 39 catastrophic accidents.

Eminently likely, no? Here's the complete article. 

QOTD - Davos

This from Insty:

 “This wannabee gaggle of quasi-oligarchs and autocrat throne sniffers represents everything that is wrong with the human desire for control, power, and to crush the individual for fun and profit. - Glen Reynolds 

This description of the participants is the best and most succinct I've seen to date. I'm shamelessly stealing it for use at any opportunity, and I call on everyone else to join in. Throne sniffers, indeed.

Fun With Headlines

Biden Questions Why Police ‘Always Shoot with Deadly Force’

“We have to retrain cops,” Biden said. “Why should you always shoot with deadly force? The fact is if you need to use your weapon, you don’t have to do that,” Biden said.

Use the kinder, gentler shooting technique?