Sunday, November 15, 2020

Election Update 4 - Benford Curve in Colorado

 The Benford curve has been coming up a lot lately, a statistical oddity that says that in a collection of randomly assembled numbers, the leading digits of the numbers will occur normally in predictable rates.

Forensic accountants will tell you that this is a useful tool for pointing out areas of a ledger that need closer scrutiny. One can take, for example, the county-by-county vote count for either Trump or Biden and find the trump numbers closely follow the curve. In Pennsylvania, Michigan, and other select locations, Bidens curve more closely resembles a roller coaster track. This is true for the hotly debated states, but I got to wondering if there might be something going on here in Colorado. 

Actually that's a pretty good bet as we have all mail in voting coupled with ballot harvesting, and essentially zero losses for Dems on the ballot even though the tax questions tend to lose. I pulled up the county level vote totals for the Rep, Sem, Libertarian, and one obscure minor party candidate and made a graph:

The Independents data follows the predicted curve fairly well. Trump isn't too far off except for the big jump at 9 which nearly everyone seemed to have. We have 64 counties, so 21 would be what one would expect to find in the ones column. Yes, I probably could have made the X axis denominated in percentages, but I didn't. So sue me. Or divide the numbers by 64. In your head.

Note the blue Biden results with 2 outlying bumps at 3 and 7. Note that everyone had a bump at 7 and a near zero at 8. Toward the right end of the curve, the combination of this being a relatively small data set along with a low expected count anyway, means that some twitching in the 7-8-9 range should surprise no one. Nothing in this graph points specifically to any hanky-panky, but as Larry Correia points out, it strongly suggests that there is something fishy going on. Exactly what is TBD, but if one looks one will, in all likelihood, find.

NOTE The probability of anyone looking is as close to zero as not to matter. Chicago rules: If you own the cops, you won't get arrested. If you own the judge, you won't get convicted. Around here, the Dems own both.

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