Showing posts with label Polls. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Polls. Show all posts

Tuesday, July 6, 2021

Lies, Damn Lies, And Polls

This poll suggests that Coloradans love being East California and all that entails, but... 

I am suspicious of a poll showing large majorities in favor of rapidly increasing taxes, including fees, high unemployment, large homeless encampments, a new taxing zone for a high speed rail corridor, restrictions on charter schools, etc, etc. When you take a poll, you poll large numbers of people, and sort them by political affiliation, then adjust their weighting to match, say, the turnout from the last election. As well, the poll runs an incumbent against an unknown opponent, never a winning proposition.

Now let's assume that Colorado used the same Dominion voting machines and tabulators that gave Dems a 2-5% boost across the board. One could be left with the idea that there are a lot more "Bernie boys" in this state than there actually are, and that thus, far left positions are much more popular than in actual fact. This can also bias later polls which would be weighted to match fraudulent voter data. Done carefully, this sort of thing can convince the majority that they're in the minority, and depress their turnout in elections, and convince them to leave the state.

This Rassmussen poll suggests that the far left is far less popular than the media would have you believe. The trick here is to get honest polling data out to the electorate to give them some confidence that they are not lonesome voices crying in the wilderness.


UPDATE: I seem to have been right.


 


 

Friday, November 8, 2019

Polling Bias - What they don't tell you

Everyone has seen the headlines blaring Trumps approval rating being in the low 40's and making you think he'll be gone by Friday. Now here's the rest of the story: All the leading Dem candidates are doing worse than the president:

Keep in mind that this a poll of 835 registered voters taken between October 30 and November 2, 2019 — or while Democrats and their media allies are on a 24/7 crusade to impeach Trump.
Favorable / Unfavorable
Donald Trump: 44 / 54 percent
Quid Pro Joe Biden: 43 / 50 percent
Bernie “The Fossil” Sanders: 41 / 54 percent
Cherokee Princess Elizabeth Warren: 42 / 44 percent
Dingbat Kamala Harris: 27 / 46 percent
Mean Little Mayor Pete Buttigieg: 27 / 34 percent
One other thing is that at this time in his first term, Obama was 3 points lower than Trump is now even with the 24/7 butt kissing Obie was getting from the press.

Thursday, October 3, 2019

Clinton Now Leads Harris

As far as the punters are concerned anyway. I ascribe greater credibility to them then the pollsters since the people on Predictit.org are betting their own money on the outcomes and not taking someone elses to provide a desired result.

Saturday, September 14, 2019

QOTD - Gun Bans

Sen John Kennedy (R-LA) (not those Kennedys) responding to a letter signed by numerous CEOs anxious not to see calls for boycotts of their goods by the noisy left:
"And about that poll, first, I have got to see the poll that say what folks say they say. I know how to write a poll question. I can make a poll walk, talk, and whistle the Battle Hymn of the Republic."
 Most of us have figured that part out by now and see polls saying that 92% of everyone favors stricter gun control while also seeing reports that New Jerseys magazine turn in law has netted a total of zero magazines.

The disconnect here is right up there with Hillarys 95% chance of winning the presidency, and as someone else observed; Trump hasn't had unfavorable poll results this bad since election night 2016.

Monday, October 29, 2018

President Hillary?

Hill would like to be president. Big deal, so would I. In fact I'd like to be absolute dictator of the world, but I'd settle for POTUS. My big disadvantage is that no one knows who I am. Her big hurdle is that everybody does.

At this point I'm giving myself a slight advantage over her.

Thursday, May 3, 2018

Survey Says: Convention Of States

The Convention of States group, which is advocating for exactly that to consider possible amendments to the constitution, has completed a survey of its followers asking among other things, what it is that they see as the most important issues facing the country today.First results are out, and shake down like this:
Top Five Biggest Threats to the American Republic Today1. Illegal Immigration 20%
2. Erosion of Individual Rights 19%
3. Runaway Spending 17%
4. The Media 12%
5. Politicization of the Education System 11%
6. Infringement on 2nd Amendment 9%
7. Money in Politics 6%
Put this way, gun rights doesn't figure very highly but when you consider that gun rights are individual rights, and toss them in with erosion of individual rights, you get 28% seeing erosion of individual rights as the biggest issue out there today. The above list and a quick summary of some of the other results appears in a Paul Bedard column here.

Full disclosure: I'm a member of the COS group and participated in the survey. FWIW I don't believe the survey was given to anyone outside the group so it's not a representative survey of the general population. I'm not on Facebook or Twitter so I don't know if they've been banned, blocked, excommunicated or whatever or if they even have a presence there. The group sounds like one Z-burg would ban as "hate speech" if he knew anything about it.

Friday, July 14, 2017

Polls - What Was The Question?

Trending right now is Trumps approval rating which is somewhere between 40 and 50%. Now how was the question asked?
So Trump is a brash, obnoxious New Yorker. So what? Most of us knew that when we voted for him. How's he doing other than that? Pretty well it looks like. Chart found here. RTWT.

UPDATE:
Now go here and take a look at how CNN and WaPo do it.

Monday, November 7, 2016

Fun With Headlines

Seen at Drudge:


While it's nice to see the bit about leading in Colorado, one should perhaps ask President Romney just how much better Trump NEEDS to be doing in order to take those states. 

Thursday, October 6, 2016

Why We Love Polls

Because with little or no effort you can get any answer you want. A lot of them right now are heavily skewed to discourage targeted voters from voting.

Reuters was reporting Trump up 2 this morning which would be a significant jump from being down 6 yesterday. It makes a good headline, but look under the hood. To get to Trump by 2, the sample included 46% democrats, 32.5% Republicans, and 13.9% Independents. In the last election, Coloradoans cast more Republican votes than Dem by a small margin. Expert gerrymandering in 2010 got the Donks the House and Governorship.

Other polls suggest that about 11% of each party is planning to vote the other party, being unable to stomach the selected candidate. If the I's break 100% for Trump (unlikely) the poll would show a 46/46.4 in Trumps favor. If the I's break 50-50 (more likely), the results look like 53/39 in favor of Hill. Right now no one sees that happening either. Adjusting for the disgruntled would move about 5.8 points from D to R and 4.3 points from R to D making the margin 51.7/40.3.

In order to get to a 2% Trump win, about 8 points of the D's would have to switch to the R side, or voter turnout would have to look more like it usually does around here. Still, if it took that big an oversampling of Dems to get Trump 2 points up, think what an approximately even split must yield.

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Scoring The Debates

Because everyone else is doing it.
Drudge has Trump winning big:
I'm sure the New York Times has a similar poll with similar proportions showing Hill the winner. It's a problem with polling your own followers or employees. Maybe Real Clear Politics will give us an average of some 10 or more polls from reputable sources. Meantime here's a good sized set. I counted so you don't have to. Trump won 16:1 by varying amounts.

My take:
1. Trump didn't fly off the handle and Hill didn't collapse. Kudos to Trumps shrink and Hill's medical team. Her cosmetologist deserves credit as well, she didn't look a day over 40. I had a quiet side bet with myself that neither of them would make it past the 1 hour mark. I lost, so I owe myself a beer.

2. Hill was more polished and better prepared. I suppose that spending 11 hours before a Senate panel repeating the 5th amendment is good practice, although he performance at remembering all those talking points makes you wonder about why she can't seem to remember anything else when seated in front of a Senator.

3. Hill put out some whoppers that Trump let slide. Yes he called her on some, but he missed several as well. The audience seemed to be catching the BS fairly well.

4. Hill pushed the "racist, crazy" meme and Trump brought up the "crooked, untrustworthy" bits which seemed to stick better.

I watched the debate with a bunch of fellow deplorables at the Waters Edge Winery 2101 East Arapahoe Road #101 which isn't near any water at all. The black rasberry Merlot was delicious. To see how this helps the candidates, go here.

Wednesday, June 15, 2016

Polls - How To Do It

Scott Adams has taken a poll  which shows what people (might) think about Trumps immigration position.
Adams is a trained persuader and has been impressed with Trumps abilities in the same area. What I noticed is the way he phrased the questions.  Still, I don't think he got a wrong answer. Go read his comments on Trumps abilities. Oh yes, and buy his book.

Disclaimer: He's not paying me to endorse his book, but he did persuade me to buy it. He hasn't persuaded me to read it yet, that being obviously a much lower priority than getting me to buy it. It is in the queue.

Monday, June 13, 2016

This Is Confusing

Noted on Insty:
Only 29% of Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in the U.S. according to the Gallup poll conducted during the first week of June.
And yet the presidents approval rating is about 55%. I suppose everyone bought in to the "it's Bush's fault" line from 2008 but why has no one asked him why Bush seems to be able to have a greater influence over U.S. affairs than he does at this late date?