Friday, January 3, 2014

Opening Day - Pot Sales

So now you can buy pot for recreational use here, and the laws of economics are setting in. In an interview with a pot store owner, the retail price of an ounce was set at $400 which was reportedly the going price on the street.

Good thinking. The cartels don't like competition, so if your price equals their price, they get the sale by not recording your drivers license when they sell to you. One other problem: Pot is taxed at 25%, which makes that ounce cost $500, not $400. Even the stoners will figure that out eventually. Word is that retail pot is now down to $300/oz which works out to $375 out the door with your drivers license scanned into some state database somewhere.

Given the legendary paranoia of the average hippie, even this may not prove sufficient, but I'm sure the price will eventually find a point at which the risk/reward ratio puts the retailer and the corner dealer on an even footing.

Pot is famously easy to grow and a pound of the stuff on the hoof takes up little space. The retailers, being capitalists will soon discover that they have competition and will meet it in the usual way by cutting prices. I doubt we'll see the $10/oz prices we saw back in the 60's, but I expect we'll see some substantial drops in the price. This will drag down the street price as well. The cartels, however will note that aside from lobbying for higher taxes, the price will be what it wants to be. The opportunity is in interstate commerce.

Join a growing operation in Colorado, overproduce/underreport, and ship the excess out of state. Much easier than smuggling across international borders, no matter how under patrolled. Grow it here and sell it in Kansas City, St. Louis, or Chicago.

We will see in the coming year how this plays out

No comments: